p-ed views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.
President Donald Trump has stated, “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.” That requires core demands: surrendering enriched uranium, zero enrichment, and irreversible dismantlement of the nuclear weapons program. These actions would lead to regime collapse.
Trump supporters critical of the Islamabad MOU need not worry about its contents. Trump, the United States, and the world will win if Iran accedes to the core demands and will lose if Trump accepts anything less. Other elements are not pivotal for a US win.
Trump has often said his goal was not regime change. Consistent with this, Trump has given the regime a narrow window to choose survival through compliance. The regime is buying time. History indicates it will not deliver.
Twelver Shia Islam is the official state religion of the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to the Iranian government, 90–95 percent of people are Twelver Shia. They believe in the Mahdi, the hidden 12th Imam–AKA the Imam of the Age—who will return in times of cataclysmic chaos to bring justice and peace to the world.
Iran’s supreme leader acts on behalf of the Mahdi and holds direct command over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It is the regime’s primary tool to repress and control the population. Ruhollah Khomeini, the first supreme leader, explained: “We shall export our revolution to the whole world. Until the cry ‘There is no god but Allah’ resounds over the whole world, there will be struggle.” The IRGC’s principal mission is to protect the Shia clergy and advance the Islamic revolution at home and abroad.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the war. One of his representatives to the IRGC said it “is one of the tools for paving the way for the emergence of the Imam of the Age.” Another said the IRGC’s “last responsibility is to prepare the world for the emergence of the Imam of the Age.”
A nuclear confrontation would result in cataclysmic chaos. Critics of Trump’s military actions say Iran would be unlikely to use nuclear weapons if it acquired them. The above fanatical IRGC statements contradict this rational-actor analysis, as do statements by two former Iranian presidents.
Akbar Rafsanjani (1989–1997) said in 2001: “The use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything. However, it will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality.” Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in 2005 as president: “Our dear Imam [Khomeini] ordered that this Jerusalem-occupying regime [Israel] must be erased from the page of time. This was a very wise statement.”
The world cannot afford to take even a small risk of nuclear weapons use by Iran if it is preventable. Trump has the vision, courage, and power to prevent it.
Beyond ideology, however, the regime’s domestic fragility makes compliance suicidal. Activist Mohamad Faridi–born in Iran, trained by the IRGC, granted asylum and later US citizenship—describes grassroots disillusionment with the regime’s enforced religiosity. He cites Gamaan, a research group that conducts online anonymous surveys in Iran, finding that only 32 percent of Iranians identified as Shia Muslim.
