Negative Media Coverage Muddies Waters, Distracts from Tasks at Hand
Donald Trump’s election victory has caused a wave of media speculation regarding the negative implications for US relations with Latin America. (See WOLA, America’s Quarterly, and APNews.) Central America, in particular, deserves special attention given its role in the illegal trafficking of migrants, women and minors, and narcotics into the United States. Further, the Isthmus has geographical importance for strategic security interests: blocking the advance of China near US shores.
The most important country for the United States in the Isthmus is Guatemala, the largest country in the world that recognizes Taiwan and a strong ally of Israel. This has remained true despite changes of government in Guatemala over time.
It would be easy to overstate the potential differences that might occur between the governments of the United States and Guatemala under a second Trump administration. After all, the current Guatemalan government, led by President Bernardo Arévalo, has been strongly supported by the Joe Biden administration.
However, the traditional bilateral relations between the United States and Guatemala will not change much. Commerce between the two countries will continue to grow. It always has, regardless of the changes in government in both countries.
Importantly, the Arévalo government has maintained diplomatic relations with Taiwan and Israel, two issues that will be important for the next Trump government. On the basic issues of importance for US foreign policy in the region, Guatemala remains the key US ally locally. This will not be lost on the incoming Trump administration.
The biggest challenge for the Guatemalan government under a second Trump administration will surely be the issue of illegal migration. Under the prior Guatemalan administration, the Trump government negotiated the “Safe Third Country” agreement, which included Honduras and El Salvador, the countries of the Northern Triangle. Said agreement required migrants claiming to be fleeing in fear for their safety in their home countries to stay in the first foreign country they reached.
This agreement was successful in mitigating the influx of false asylee claims. It was widely panned in the media (see Foreign Policy, Washington Post, Vox), and was immediately canceled by the Biden-Harris administration in its first full month in office.
The Biden-Harris administration repealed various executive orders issued under the Trump government to control illegal immigration through the Southern Border, causing border encounters to skyrocket. Monthly border encounters reported by Customs and Border Protection went from 73,994 in December 2020 to 179,253 in December of 2021. They would rise again to 252,315 and 301,982 in the next two years, an increase of 308 percent from 2020 to 2023. Under the Biden-Harris administration, over 10 million border encounters were reported as of September, 2024, roughly 80 percent of them at the Southwest border.
The illegal immigration problem has exploded to such a magnitude that the Northern Triangle countries no longer constitute the largest growth category in illegal immigration flows. Now, the majority of illegal migration falls under the category of “other countries,” with border encounters from these countries surpassing those from Guatemala and her neighbors. In 2021, Guatemala represented 16.3 percent of total encounters on the Southwest border. This figure was reduced to 8.9 percent in 2023. Meanwhile, the “others” category increased from 21.8 percent of total encounters in 2021 to 51 percent in 2023.
Trump will reinstate his executive orders on the border upon taking office and will immediately implement a deportation plan. The designation of former ICE Director Tom Homan as his border czar is a clear signal that Trump is serious about tackling the border problems of illegal immigration and the trafficking of drugs, women, and children.
Trump made wide-scale deportations a centerpiece of his campaign, and US voters delivered him a mandate to keep his promise. Illegal immigration was a major issue throughout this last US election cycle. According to Pew Research, the proposal to carry out “mass deportations of immigrants living in the country illegally” obtained support from 56 percent of registered voters who “strongly or somewhat” favored this proposal. Another Pew study found that most Americans believe that “increasing deportations” of people living illegally in the United States would improve the immigration system and reduce crossings at the southern border.
The Guatemalan response to deportations needs to consider the “Three Rs”: remittances, reintegration, and rehabilitation.
Although one might assume that increased deportations will reduce remittances, they will continue to flow into Guatemala, where they equal 20 percent of GDP. Consider the so-called Trump factor: during Trump’s first term, remittances to Guatemala rose significantly, leading many to think that fear of deportation led migrants to increase their remittances.
According to data from Guatemala’s Central Bank, during Barack Obama’s eight years in office, remittances amounted to $41.3 billion. In just four years under Trump, remittances reached $39.3 billion. The Trump total represented a 229 percent increase over Obama’s first four years and a 163 percent increase over Obama’s last four years. Under Biden, remittances from January 2021 to October 2024 totaled nearly $71 billion, an 80 percent increase over Trump’s four years.
Reintegration programs for most deportees will be crucial in order to provide them with jobs, thus disincentivizing repeat illegal immigration. Migration has already been causing a labor shortage in certain economic sectors in Guatemala.
Rehabilitation programs will also be necessary for deportees with records for violating non-immigration US laws. If these deportees have convictions or cases pending before the Guatemalan judicial system, they should be prosecuted. However, if they do not, and if their offenses committed in the United States were non-violent, they should be considered candidates for rehabilitation programs with the ultimate goal of reintegration into the formal labor market in Guatemala.
The opinion of this article is foreign to Noticiero El Vigilante
